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Sales performance across various companies for September 2024 (Sep-24E) in comparison to September 2023 (Sep-23A), along with year-over-year (YoY) and month-over-month (MoM) changes, as well as forecasts for Q1 FY25E. Here’s a breakdown of each company:
1. LUCK (Lucky Cement):
- Sep-24E sales: 734,990 tons
- Local: 458,723 tons (-27% YoY)
- Exports: 276,268 tons (+96% YoY)
- YoY: -4% overall sales, primarily driven by a sharp decline in local sales.
- MoM: Flat overall.
- Q1FY25E: 2,159,339 tons, a 3% YoY decline.
2. DGKC (D.G. Khan Cement):
- Sep-24E sales: 397,200 tons
- Local: 254,757 tons (-26% YoY)
- Exports: 142,443 tons (+82% YoY)
- YoY: -6%, primarily due to local sales decline.
- MoM: +7%, with exports driving growth.
- Q1FY25E: 1,061,896 tons, a 10% YoY decrease.
3. MLCF (Maple Leaf Cement):
- Sep-24E sales: 282,399 tons
- Local: 261,134 tons (-24% YoY)
- Exports: 21,265 tons (+15% YoY)
- YoY: -22%, significant reduction in local sales.
- MoM: -5%, with exports showing resilience.
- Q1FY25E: 836,852 tons, an 18% YoY decline.
4. BWCL (Bestway Cement):
- Sep-24E sales: 502,297 tons
- Local: 495,395 tons (-20% YoY)
- Exports: 6,902 tons (-21% YoY)
- YoY: -20%, as local sales dropped sharply.
- MoM: +1%, showing marginal recovery.
- Q1FY25E: 1,429,667 tons, a 19% YoY decline.
5. PIOC (Pioneer Cement):
- Sep-24E sales: 148,926 tons (local only)
- YoY: -29%, reflecting a significant contraction.
- MoM: -6%.
- Q1FY25E: 452,690 tons, a 25% YoY decline.
6. CHCC (Cherat Cement):
- Sep-24E sales: 197,475 tons
- Local: 154,682 tons (-22% YoY)
- Exports: 42,793 tons (+5% YoY)
- YoY: -17%, with local sales suffering.
- MoM: -9%, showing a monthly slowdown.
- Q1FY25E: 571,270 tons, an 18% YoY decline.
7. ACPL (Attock Cement):
- Sep-24E sales: 225,923 tons
- Local: 90,829 tons (-26% YoY)
- Exports: 135,094 tons (+93% YoY)
- YoY: +17%, driven by strong export growth.
- MoM: +73%, showing significant recovery.
- Q1FY25E: 504,544 tons, a 4% YoY decline.
8. KOHC (Kohat Cement):
- Sep-24E sales: 209,966 tons
- Local: 207,542 tons (-12% YoY)
- Exports: 2,424 tons (-59% YoY)
- YoY: -13%, impacted by both local and export declines.
- MoM: +5%, with some recovery in the local market.
- Q1FY25E: 590,851 tons, a 22% YoY decline.
9. FCCL (Fauji Cement):
- Sep-24E sales: 440,980 tons
- Local: 386,400 tons (-5% YoY)
- Exports: 54,580 tons (-8% YoY)
- YoY: -6%, reflecting a modest decline.
- MoM: -3%.
- Q1FY25E: 1,279,583 tons, a 5% YoY decline.
Overall Summary:
- Export Growth: Several companies such as LUCK, DGKC, and ACPL have shown significant growth in exports, despite facing declines in local sales.
- Local Sales Decline: Most companies, particularly MLCF, BWCL, and CHCC, have reported notable YoY decreases in local sales.
- Forecast: The first quarter of FY25 shows a consistent YoY decline in total sales for nearly all companies, with LUCK, DGKC, and ACPL expecting relatively moderate downturns compared to others.