Pakistan’s cement industry is witnessing significant changes in both domestic and export dispatches as of September 2024. Local cement dispatches show a modest month-on-month (MoM) increase, but year-on-year (YoY) figures paint a bleaker picture, with a significant decline in sales. Export sales, on the other hand, demonstrate impressive growth, particularly when compared to the same period last year.
September 2024 Cement Dispatches
In September 2024, Pakistan’s total cement sales are estimated to reach 3.56 million tons, reflecting a 6% MoM increase. Local sales contributed 2.79 million tons, representing a marginal 1% MoM growth, but saw a sharp 22% decline YoY from 3.56 million tons in September 2023.
The modest MoM growth in local dispatches is attributed to the low base of August 2024, where local sales stood at 2.75 million tons, below the six-month average of 2.9 million tons. Daily domestic sales for September 2024 are expected to average 93,000 tons/day, significantly lower than September 2023’s daily average of 118,000 tons/day.
The North and South regions showed contrasting trends. The North recorded 2.33 million tons in local dispatches, a 20% YoY decline. In the South, local dispatches stood at 0.46 million tons, witnessing a 31% YoY drop.
On a more positive note, cement exports surged by 36% YoY to 0.78 million tons in September 2024. This is a significant improvement from the 0.57 million tons in September 2023. The MoM increase in exports was even more notable, rising by 27% compared to the previous month.
Q1 FY25 Cement Dispatches
For the first quarter of FY25, Pakistan’s total cement sales are projected to reach 9.94 million tons, which represents a 16% decline YoY from 11.88 million tons in Q1 FY24. Local cement sales are expected to total 8 million tons, down 21% YoY from 10.13 million tons in the same quarter last year.
The North region is estimated to dispatch 6.75 million tons locally, a 19% YoY decline, while the South region is anticipated to dispatch 1.26 million tons, down by 30% YoY.
In contrast, cement exports during Q1 FY25 are expected to rise by 11% YoY to 1.94 million tons compared to 1.75 million tons in Q1 FY24.
Company-wise Performance
Looking at individual companies’ performance, Lucky Cement (LUCK) remains the market leader but saw its total dispatches drop by 4% YoY in September 2024, amounting to 734,990 tons. Its local dispatches fell by 27% YoY, while its exports jumped by an impressive 96% YoY.
Similarly, DG Khan Cement (DGKC) recorded a 6% YoY decline in total dispatches, reaching 397,200 tons. Local dispatches dropped by 26% YoY, while exports surged by 82% YoY.
Other notable performances include Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF), which saw a 22% YoY decline in total dispatches, and Bestway Cement (BWCL), which experienced a 20% YoY drop in total sales but saw a modest increase in exports.